Russia Set to Escalate to ‘New Generation Warfare’ Against NATO

According to a newly released threat analysis by Recorded Future’s Insikt Group , Europe must brace for a significant escalation in Russian hostilities over the next two years. Since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Russia’s hybrid warfare against NATO territory has been increasingly aggressive, yet largely opportunistic. However, the report warns that Russian President Vladimir Putin is preparing to transition these efforts into a highly coordinated, full-scale campaign.

This anticipated escalation aligns with a Russian military doctrine known as New Generation Warfare (NGW). Unlike traditional military conflicts, NGW emphasizes the control of information and psychological spaces, combining non-military actions with undeclared special forces to weaken an adversary.

The doctrine is heavily influenced by Russia’s Chief of the General Staff, Valery Gerasimov. As the Insikt Group report highlights, Gerasimov fundamentally believes that “the very ‘rules of war’ have changed”. Quoting Gerasimov directly, the report notes his view that, “The role of nonmilitary means of achieving political and strategic goals has grown and, in many cases, they have exceeded the power of force of weapons in their effectiveness”.

Putin likely views the next two years as a critical window to test NATO’s defensive capabilities and exploit perceived political tensions between the US and its European allies ahead of the 2028 US presidential election.

In a full-scale NGW campaign, Russia would deploy its existing hybrid tactics more frequently, across a broader geographic area, and in highly coordinated ways designed to strain NATO resources. Crucially, Moscow will very likely aim to keep the physical destruction below the threshold that would risk triggering NATO’s Article 5 mutual defense clause.

The primary components of this NGW toolkit include

• Cyber Operations: Russian threat actors like BlueDelta and BlueEcho have historically focused on establishing access and collecting intelligence within European networks. However, in an NGW scenario, this access could be weaponized to manipulate edge-device configurations or trigger temporary disruptions to essential services.
• Sabotage of Critical Infrastructure: Sabotage operations—targeting civilian or dual-use infrastructure using deniable entities—have already quadrupled between 2023 and 2024. Future operations would likely prioritize countries that are potential targets of military incursions, such as Poland or the Baltic states, as well as their major allies like the UK, Germany, or France.
• Airspace Incursions: Between September 2025 and January 2026, suspected NATO airspace violations by drones and jets reached unprecedented levels. Moving forward, Russia may use drones to hover over civilian transportation hubs or major political summits to project power and stoke public panic.
• Maritime Threats: Russia has increasingly targeted undersea cables and violated territorial waters to test alliance resilience. The report expects more frequent cable targeting designed to cause persistent, minor damage.
• Influence Operations: Moscow will continue utilizing deepfakes, illicit financing, and fabricated reporting to erode transatlantic cohesion and accelerate sanctions fatigue.

While the immediate threat involves hybrid NGW tactics, the report outlines a more concerning horizon. Over the next three to five years, Putin will likely evaluate the feasibility of a kinetic military incursion into NATO territory, particularly targeting former Soviet states. The report notes a growing consensus among European intelligence officials regarding this timeline, quoting a recently declassified Danish intelligence analysis which stated: “Russia sees itself in conflict with the West and is preparing for a war against NATO”.

Despite these preparations, Insikt Group assesses that the probability of an unprovoked, proactive Russian military operation into NATO territory very likely remains low.